The revelation that the artist Banksy is a 50-something man from Bristol, England, named Robin Gunningham, according to a Reuters report, has shaken the art world. It may be the ultimate test of what actually determines value in contemporary art.
Art insiders are speculating that the news will increase the value of Banksy’s work. That line of thinking tracks with the fact that markets hate uncertainty, and now there is more clarity. But Banksy’s art is not like a stock option or any other commodity; greater transparency and predictability won’t increase its value. Odds are, the prices of his existing work will fall.
That said, it is easy to see how coming out of the shadows and embracing commercialization could create a new and more stable market for Banksy’s work — or at least more consistent revenue for art dealers who believe their role is to control price and supply. It is true that his work has fallen sharply in recent years, but so has the broader art market. The difference is in the magnitude: his prices tend to rise and fall more dramatically, often behaving like a high-beta asset.
